Lithium Carbonate Prices Rise Sharply, Divergence Between Futures and Spot Markets Requires Attention [SMM Analysis]

Spot lithium carbonate prices showed a strong trend of "continuous one-sided rise" this week. The SMM average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from 95,150 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week (December 15) to 97,550 yuan/mt on Thursday (December 18), a cumulative increase of 2,400 yuan/mt; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose from 92,650 yuan/mt to 94,950 yuan/mt, a cumulative increase of 2,300 yuan/mt. The futures market performed even more strongly, with the price range of the most-traded contract shifting significantly higher, breaking strongly from 97,300-101,200 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 104,700-109,900 yuan/mt. This round of price movement was primarily driven by market sentiment, with the direct trigger being the announcement issued by the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau in Jiangxi regarding the cancellation of 27 mining rights. Although this announcement sparked market concerns about lithium resource supply, it should be noted that the involved lithium-bearing porcelain clay mines (such as the Shiziling Mine) had actually ceased production before 2025 and were not continuously supplying lithium resources to the market. Therefore, this event has no substantive impact on the stability of current and subsequent lithium carbonate supply. The abnormal price increase mainly reflects sentiment fluctuations and is weakly linked to industry fundamentals. From the perspective of actual market transactions, the current price level has clearly exceeded the acceptable range for most downstream material plants, resulting in very few market transactions, primarily supported by just-in-time procurement from some enterprises.

Supply-demand side, supply side, lithium chemical plants maintained stable production, and domestic lithium carbonate production in December is still expected to maintain approximately 3% MoM growth. Demand side, the robust performance of the NEV and ESS markets continues to provide underlying support for demand, but battery cell and cathode material production schedules in December are expected to show a slight MoM decline. Overall, the industry maintains a pattern of "steady supply increase and demand holding steady at high levels," with the destocking trend expected to continue but at a slower pace.

Notably, the market this week showed significant "divergence between futures and spot" and emotional characteristics. The rapid price increase has severely suppressed spot transactions, while the futures market exhibited irrational gains, creating some divergence from spot fundamentals, calling for all parties to rationally assess the actual supply and demand situation.